MODEL VERDICT
Pool Corporation (POOL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $208.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $232.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $227.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $226.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $214.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $228.26 | +9.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $208.81 | +0.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $248.69 | +19.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $160.12 | -23.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $274.34 | +31.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $176.36 | -15.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $171.58 | -17.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $295.32 | +41.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $282.64 | +35.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $247.54 | +19.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $153.04 | -26.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $254.38 | +22.3% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $166 | $188 | $210 | $232 | $255 |
| Conservative (5%) | $171 | $194 | $216 | $239 | $262 |
| Base Case (3.9%) | $169 | $192 | $214 | $237 | $259 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $171 | $194 | $217 | $240 | $263 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.63 | 30.17 | 16.17 | 41.53 | 8.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.53 | 23.05 | 13.31 | 34.08 | 7.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.14 | 21.47 | 12.82 | 32.05 | 7.07 |
| P/FCF | 35.94 | 27.56 | 18.78 | 83.06 | 21.96 |
| P/FFO | 27.23 | 27.60 | 15.28 | 38.43 | 8.07 |
| P/TBV | 85.70 | 45.92 | 41.22 | 326.31 | 106.16 |
| P/AFFO | 29.90 | 31.01 | 16.18 | 40.65 | 8.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.05 | 11.84 | 7.20 | 23.80 | 6.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.82 | 2.71 | 1.61 | 4.33 | 0.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates POOL's fair value at $254.38 vs the current price of $208.09, implying +22.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $254.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $227.29 (P10) to $288.30 (P90), with a median of $257.32.
POOL's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -16.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
21 analysts cover POOL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $279.29 (range: $240.00 — $310.00), implying +34.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that POOL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16450.0% to approximately $550. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.