MODEL VERDICT
Power Integrations, Inc. (POWI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $73.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $73.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $58.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $54.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $54.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $70.88 | -3.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $34.49 | -53.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $25.81 | -64.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $66.49 | -9.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $29.68 | -59.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $74.37 | +1.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $50.30 | -31.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $50.63 | -30.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $22.33 | -69.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $49.57 | -32.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.84 | -30.7% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 158× | 173× | 188× (Current) | 203× | 218× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
| Conservative (5%) | $65 | $71 | $77 | $83 | $89 |
| Base Case (-19.7%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $68 |
| Bull Case (-27%) | $45 | $50 | $54 | $58 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.49 | 69.97 | 15.27 | 110.18 | 36.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 85.82 | 66.99 | 22.70 | 195.33 | 61.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.34 | 39.27 | 11.48 | 66.69 | 21.70 |
| P/FCF | 49.10 | 31.10 | 14.79 | 105.43 | 35.94 |
| P/FFO | 36.57 | 39.94 | 13.54 | 52.76 | 15.95 |
| P/TBV | 5.92 | 6.37 | 3.51 | 7.21 | 1.40 |
| P/AFFO | 66.53 | 65.51 | 15.22 | 173.67 | 52.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.14 | 5.54 | 2.98 | 6.29 | 1.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.90 | 8.12 | 4.51 | 10.64 | 2.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates POWI's fair value at $50.84 vs the current price of $73.32, implying -30.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.41 (P10) to $59.17 (P90), with a median of $51.05.
POWI's current P/E of 188.0x compares to the industry median of 66.2x (2 peers in the group). This represents a +184.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover POWI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $79.00 (range: $78.00 — $80.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: POWI trades at the 9360th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (61.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that POWI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1060.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.