MODEL VERDICT
Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $35.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $52.74 | +65.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $57.67 | +80.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $86.70 | +172.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $40.75 | +27.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $88.80 | +178.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $48.45 | +52.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $86.46 | +171.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $72.12 | +126.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $55.63 | +74.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $86.69 | +171.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $40.74 | +27.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.50 | +140.0% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (25%) | $23 | $28 | $40 | $51 | $63 |
| Conservative (41%) | $26 | $32 | $45 | $58 | $71 |
| Base Case (63.4%) | $30 | $37 | $52 | $67 | $82 |
| Bull Case (86%) | $34 | $42 | $59 | $76 | $93 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.37 | 17.88 | 7.65 | 216.92 | 76.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.01 | 14.01 | 7.22 | 42.10 | 12.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.60 | 10.06 | 5.59 | 16.94 | 4.11 |
| P/FCF | 23.35 | 19.87 | 7.13 | 48.96 | 15.35 |
| P/FFO | 9.41 | 8.85 | 4.96 | 16.72 | 3.99 |
| P/TBV | 8.72 | 6.11 | 4.89 | 23.87 | 6.81 |
| P/AFFO | 53.57 | 20.68 | 8.62 | 228.32 | 79.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.40 | 2.52 | 1.87 | 3.22 | 0.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.72 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PPC's fair value at $76.50 vs the current price of $31.88, implying +140.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.90 (P10) to $105.84 (P90), with a median of $73.51.
PPC's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 19.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -63.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover PPC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $40.00 — $56.00), implying +44.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PPC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 36500.0% to approximately $148. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.