MODEL VERDICT
Proto Labs, Inc. (PRLB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $65.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $64.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $64.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $63.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $61.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $141.26 | +116.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $32.59 | -50.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $28.72 | -55.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $67.18 | +3.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $43.33 | -33.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $70.18 | +7.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $48.29 | -25.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $52.07 | -20.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $28.73 | -55.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $67.46 | +3.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.99 | +5.9% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 62× | 68× | 74× (Current) | 80× | 86× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $56 | $61 | $66 | $72 | $77 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $63 | $68 | $74 | $79 |
| Base Case (-14.2%) | $47 | $51 | $56 | $60 | $65 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.09 | 58.26 | 42.44 | 81.16 | 14.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.12 | 34.95 | 32.44 | 63.73 | 12.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.68 | 18.64 | 10.01 | 43.40 | 10.96 |
| P/FCF | 37.46 | 22.62 | 14.35 | 68.81 | 24.21 |
| P/FFO | 26.25 | 20.75 | 18.66 | 49.44 | 12.03 |
| P/TBV | 4.05 | 3.24 | 1.78 | 8.23 | 2.33 |
| P/AFFO | 54.29 | 37.09 | 22.80 | 113.19 | 36.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.65 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 6.40 | 2.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.73 | 2.30 | 1.43 | 9.50 | 2.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRLB's fair value at $68.99 vs the current price of $65.17, implying +5.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.30 (P10) to $82.42 (P90), with a median of $71.73.
PRLB's current P/E of 74.1x compares to the industry median of 32.6x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +126.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover PRLB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $38.50 (range: $34.00 — $44.00), implying -40.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PRLB trades at the 9000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (57.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRLB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (5.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 220.0% to approximately $67. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.