MODEL VERDICT
Profound Medical Corp. (PROF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $4.31 | -33.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $2.32 | -64.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.61 | +1.7% | 100% | 54 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.53 | 4.13 | 3.01 | 12.99 | 3.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.69 | 4.01 | 2.85 | 8.44 | 2.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 31.41 | 31.27 | 18.29 | 48.68 | 10.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates PROF's fair value at $6.61 vs the current price of $6.50, implying +1.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.91 (P10) to $8.64 (P90), with a median of $6.76.
PROF's current P/E of -6.1x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -116.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover PROF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying +84.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PROF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.