MODEL VERDICT
Prothena Corporation plc (PRTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $10.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $10.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $10.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $10.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $10.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $6.88 | -35.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $10.19 | -4.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1.56 | -85.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.86 | -7.4% | 100% | 58 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.98 | 2.61 | 1.26 | 5.14 | 1.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.98 | 2.61 | 1.26 | 5.14 | 1.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 265.11 | 52.94 | 5.51 | 775.59 | 319.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRTA's fair value at $9.86 vs the current price of $10.64, implying -7.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.81 (P10) to $14.67 (P90), with a median of $9.70.
PRTA's current P/E of -4.7x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -121.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover PRTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying +78.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PRTA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.