MODEL VERDICT
PubMatic, Inc. (PUBM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $9.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $9.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $20.23 | +97.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $21.47 | +109.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $19.72 | +92.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $16.45 | +60.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $19.64 | +92.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.62 | +111.3% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.26 | 50.84 | 25.62 | 101.94 | 30.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 140.51 | 39.83 | 17.70 | 424.12 | 173.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.70 | 18.45 | 8.23 | 26.63 | 7.54 |
| P/FCF | 20.90 | 19.02 | 6.25 | 39.10 | 11.90 |
| P/FFO | 19.01 | 15.63 | 10.60 | 31.74 | 8.32 |
| P/TBV | 4.48 | 3.39 | 1.81 | 7.95 | 2.65 |
| P/AFFO | 35.18 | 25.01 | 19.81 | 73.96 | 21.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.17 | 2.98 | 1.59 | 7.66 | 2.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.67 | 3.13 | 1.47 | 9.04 | 3.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates PUBM's fair value at $21.62 vs the current price of $10.23, implying +111.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.99 (P10) to $28.76 (P90), with a median of $22.75.
PUBM's current P/E of -33.0x compares to the industry median of 36.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -189.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover PUBM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +36.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PUBM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.