MODEL VERDICT
Quad/Graphics, Inc. (QUAD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $8.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $16.66 | +97.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $35.70 | +323.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $8.12 | -3.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $13.44 | +59.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $21.85 | +159.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $14.03 | +66.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $66.11 | +684.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $66.50 | +688.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $7.48 | -11.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $12.59 | +49.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.94 | +101.0% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.30 | 11.61 | 5.63 | 22.67 | 8.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.76 | 25.44 | 5.84 | 149.52 | 54.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.82 | 3.73 | 3.34 | 4.35 | 0.37 |
| P/FCF | 3.86 | 3.42 | 1.50 | 6.17 | 1.91 |
| P/FFO | 2.95 | 2.96 | 1.09 | 6.43 | 1.86 |
| P/TBV | 35.07 | 42.86 | 5.41 | 56.95 | 26.64 |
| P/AFFO | 23.07 | 5.18 | 1.46 | 100.90 | 43.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.47 | 2.20 | 0.96 | 6.65 | 1.92 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates QUAD's fair value at $16.94 vs the current price of $8.43, implying +101.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.07 (P10) to $27.43 (P90), with a median of $20.94.
QUAD's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 15.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +3.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover QUAD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $7.50 — $8.50), implying -5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 1.2% is 3.4 percentage points above the 3-year average (1.6%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10. (2) Multiple compression: QUAD trades at the 2000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that QUAD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (1.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2030.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.