MODEL VERDICT
Ryder System, Inc. (R)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $249.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $253.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $227.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $212.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $218.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $499.86 | +100.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $910.35 | +264.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $487.30 | +94.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $382.92 | +53.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $657.83 | +163.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $199.87 | -20.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $730.79 | +192.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $884.29 | +253.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $487.30 | +94.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $493.19 | +97.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $495.49 | +98.2% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $212 | $237 | $262 | $287 | $312 |
| Conservative (7%) | $217 | $243 | $268 | $294 | $319 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $224 | $251 | $277 | $303 | $330 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $231 | $259 | $286 | $313 | $340 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.37 | 13.24 | 4.93 | 15.96 | 4.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.92 | 14.97 | 7.67 | 76.03 | 26.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.65 | 4.61 | 3.79 | 5.71 | 0.61 |
| P/FCF | 13.13 | 17.43 | 3.12 | 18.85 | 8.70 |
| P/FFO | 2.10 | 1.91 | 1.46 | 3.10 | 0.67 |
| P/TBV | 2.99 | 2.39 | 1.46 | 5.38 | 1.48 |
| P/AFFO | 12.96 | 12.55 | 3.77 | 22.99 | 7.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.74 | 1.58 | 1.15 | 2.62 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.63 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates R's fair value at $495.49 vs the current price of $249.99, implying +98.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $495.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $385.46 (P10) to $521.56 (P90), with a median of $451.46.
R's current P/E of 20.8x compares to the industry median of 40.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -48.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
35 analysts cover R with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $247.33 (range: $236.00 — $253.00), implying -1.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: R trades at the 5450th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that R's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 70.0% to approximately $248. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.