MODEL VERDICT
Rani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (RANI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $0.36 | -71.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.33 | -74.2% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.76 | 2.98 | 1.90 | 11.17 | 4.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.76 | 2.98 | 1.90 | 11.17 | 4.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates RANI's fair value at $0.33 vs the current price of $1.27, implying -74.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
RANI's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -105.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover RANI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.67 (range: $9.00 — $28.00), implying +1133.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RANI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.