MODEL VERDICT
RBB Bancorp (RBB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $24.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $23.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $22.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $22.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $22.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $19.45 | -19.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $31.79 | +31.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $32.96 | +36.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $21.67 | -10.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $19.45 | -19.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $25.48 | +5.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.50 | -3.0% | 100% | 90 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 | $30 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 |
| Base Case (-5.2%) | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.55 | 9.16 | 6.26 | 13.94 | 2.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.62 | 8.25 | 4.06 | 13.41 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.43 | 7.36 | 3.50 | 11.69 | 3.06 |
| P/FCF | 4.01 | 3.49 | 0.91 | 7.14 | 2.44 |
| P/FFO | 7.80 | 7.52 | 5.35 | 10.37 | 1.64 |
| P/TBV | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.83 | 1.32 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 8.13 | 8.15 | 5.50 | 10.61 | 1.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.11 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.27 | 2.11 | 1.53 | 3.13 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RBB's fair value at $23.50 vs the current price of $24.24, implying -3.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.11 (P10) to $25.66 (P90), with a median of $23.85.
RBB's current P/E of 16.5x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +24.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.6x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
6 analysts cover RBB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $21.00 — $23.00), implying -9.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RBB trades at the 7860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RBB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2630.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.