MODEL VERDICT
RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $595.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $589.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $589.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $586.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $598.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $224.82 | -62.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $216.84 | -63.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $207.93 | -65.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $229.44 | -61.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $187.29 | -68.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $211.36 | -64.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $206.29 | -65.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $140.49 | -76.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $133.56 | -77.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $210.12 | -64.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $229.39 | -61.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $246.98 | -58.5% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 65× | 71× | 77× (Current) | 83× | 89× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $518 | $566 | $614 | $661 | $709 |
| Conservative (6%) | $529 | $578 | $627 | $675 | $724 |
| Base Case (8.8%) | $545 | $595 | $645 | $695 | $746 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $560 | $611 | $663 | $715 | $766 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.79 | 56.42 | 20.10 | 134.20 | 37.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.76 | 33.89 | 16.22 | 60.90 | 15.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.41 | 23.77 | 13.17 | 39.23 | 9.33 |
| P/FCF | 38.53 | 36.16 | 25.87 | 55.83 | 9.86 |
| P/FFO | 31.10 | 29.36 | 15.69 | 47.57 | 11.48 |
| P/TBV | 4.90 | 4.52 | 3.84 | 6.34 | 1.29 |
| P/AFFO | 37.88 | 34.50 | 22.63 | 63.22 | 13.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.20 | 3.17 | 2.18 | 4.49 | 0.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.88 | 5.64 | 3.01 | 8.32 | 1.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RBC's fair value at $246.98 vs the current price of $595.76, implying -58.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $246.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $227.57 (P10) to $300.56 (P90), with a median of $262.44.
RBC's current P/E of 77.4x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +186.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover RBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $572.60 (range: $527.00 — $600.00), implying -3.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.0% is 4.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (19.2%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$560. (2) Multiple compression: RBC trades at the 8750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (56.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 600.0% to approximately $560. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.