MODEL VERDICT
RPC, Inc. (RES)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $7.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $8.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $6.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $6.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $6.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $5.17 | -32.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $11.24 | +47.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $3.96 | -48.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $6.02 | -21.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $9.63 | +26.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $6.84 | -10.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $13.99 | +83.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $11.80 | +54.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $4.31 | -43.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $6.78 | -11.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.74 | +1.5% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.50 | 13.81 | 8.09 | 135.52 | 54.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.54 | 10.77 | 5.33 | 172.09 | 72.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.98 | 4.90 | 3.83 | 19.62 | 6.20 |
| P/FCF | 24.43 | 22.55 | 7.25 | 51.92 | 18.10 |
| P/FFO | 8.11 | 6.23 | 5.11 | 13.35 | 3.63 |
| P/TBV | 1.51 | 1.39 | 1.12 | 2.30 | 0.39 |
| P/AFFO | 87.38 | 26.60 | 11.72 | 307.04 | 125.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41 | 1.34 | 1.06 | 2.21 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RES's fair value at $7.74 vs the current price of $7.62, implying +1.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.31 (P10) to $8.97 (P90), with a median of $7.52.
RES's current P/E of 50.8x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +92.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.5x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover RES with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying -21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (23), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RES trades at the 8060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (40.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RES's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3860.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.