MODEL VERDICT
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $20.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $21.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $22.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $21.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $22.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $20.12 | -3.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $18.78 | -9.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $19.85 | -4.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $18.88 | -9.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $21.49 | +3.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $19.79 | -4.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $13.93 | -32.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $12.70 | -38.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $19.82 | -4.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $18.88 | -9.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.66 | +4.3% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (-4.3%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $23 | $26 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.79 | 17.89 | 16.03 | 24.37 | 3.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.39 | 13.90 | 12.69 | 20.25 | 3.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.52 | 11.77 | 10.27 | 15.86 | 2.23 |
| P/FCF | 30.69 | 25.15 | 10.44 | 69.15 | 22.13 |
| P/FFO | 13.59 | 13.33 | 11.06 | 16.78 | 2.12 |
| P/AFFO | 19.71 | 18.49 | 15.73 | 25.48 | 3.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.09 | 3.11 | 2.14 | 3.80 | 0.66 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.62 | 1.59 | 1.30 | 1.88 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates REYN's fair value at $21.66 vs the current price of $20.77, implying +4.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.03 (P10) to $26.51 (P90), with a median of $23.10.
REYN's current P/E of 14.5x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +4.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.8x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover REYN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.00 (range: $24.00 — $24.00), implying +15.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REYN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13480.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.