MODEL VERDICT
Resideo Technologies, Inc. (REZI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $40.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $41.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $40.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $39.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $37.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $55.91 | +39.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $73.03 | +81.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $71.35 | +77.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $127.21 | +216.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $132.03 | +228.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.61 | +43.5% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.69 | 26.88 | 8.66 | 73.31 | 24.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.69 | 13.35 | 7.58 | 20.31 | 5.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.16 | 7.19 | 5.08 | 9.65 | 1.57 |
| P/FCF | 17.02 | 15.33 | 8.31 | 36.58 | 11.42 |
| P/FFO | 12.50 | 12.19 | 6.50 | 21.83 | 5.22 |
| P/AFFO | 29.39 | 16.78 | 8.39 | 70.01 | 24.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.26 | 1.04 | 0.92 | 1.79 | 0.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.29 | 0.70 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates REZI's fair value at $57.61 vs the current price of $40.14, implying +43.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.12 (P10) to $68.24 (P90), with a median of $60.45.
REZI's current P/E of -10.6x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -135.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover REZI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $32.00 — $48.00), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for REZI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.