MODEL VERDICT
Repligen Corporation (RGEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $117.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $117.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $131.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $131.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $120.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $34.82 | -70.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $45.97 | -60.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $36.07 | -69.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $35.32 | -69.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $28.26 | -75.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $35.92 | -69.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $38.34 | -67.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $35.04 | -70.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $34.63 | -70.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $38.46 | -67.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.86 | -27.6% | 100% | 78 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 114× | 125× | 136× (Current) | 147× | 158× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $100 | $110 | $119 | $129 | $139 |
| Conservative (5%) | $103 | $113 | $123 | $133 | $143 |
| Base Case (-5.0%) | $93 | $102 | $111 | $120 | $129 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $91 | $100 | $109 | $118 | $127 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 171.55 | 181.59 | 52.26 | 285.40 | 79.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 112.71 | 116.44 | 43.70 | 170.53 | 43.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 79.84 | 72.57 | 34.18 | 155.12 | 37.50 |
| P/FCF | 178.18 | 135.28 | 56.51 | 317.67 | 103.83 |
| P/FFO | 90.87 | 90.96 | 40.04 | 131.89 | 31.96 |
| P/TBV | 16.84 | 15.30 | 12.02 | 27.45 | 5.02 |
| P/AFFO | 141.97 | 158.87 | 61.51 | 227.63 | 60.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.49 | 5.09 | 4.08 | 8.67 | 1.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.30 | 16.03 | 12.14 | 28.20 | 6.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RGEN's fair value at $84.86 vs the current price of $117.20, implying -27.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $64.75 (P10) to $107.33 (P90), with a median of $85.57.
RGEN's current P/E of 136.3x compares to the industry median of 41.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +224.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 171.5x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover RGEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $168.00 (range: $145.00 — $200.00), implying +43.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (19), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RGEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10440.0% to approximately $240. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.