MODEL VERDICT
ResMed Inc. (RMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $205.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $219.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $228.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $228.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $228.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $185.26 | -9.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $231.29 | +12.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $252.29 | +23.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $247.82 | +20.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $266.18 | +29.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $291.33 | +42.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $740.38 | +261.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $116.19 | -43.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $92.33 | -55.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $249.96 | +21.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $247.32 | +20.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $309.75 | +51.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $183 | $203 | $224 | $244 | $264 |
| Conservative (11%) | $191 | $212 | $233 | $254 | $275 |
| Base Case (17.4%) | $201 | $223 | $246 | $268 | $290 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $211 | $235 | $258 | $282 | $305 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.49 | 39.27 | 25.33 | 80.40 | 19.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.28 | 31.79 | 20.94 | 42.37 | 9.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.65 | 26.17 | 18.29 | 35.29 | 6.66 |
| P/FCF | 59.21 | 45.35 | 21.36 | 156.85 | 45.59 |
| P/FFO | 34.25 | 31.44 | 21.69 | 57.28 | 12.40 |
| P/TBV | 59.83 | 29.90 | 14.45 | 195.29 | 68.84 |
| P/AFFO | 39.60 | 37.45 | 22.95 | 69.46 | 15.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.22 | 9.11 | 5.95 | 13.22 | 3.00 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.52 | 8.55 | 6.01 | 11.93 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RMD's fair value at $309.75 vs the current price of $205.02, implying +51.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $309.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $242.79 (P10) to $342.44 (P90), with a median of $289.91.
RMD's current P/E of 21.6x compares to the industry median of 26.5x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -18.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
35 analysts cover RMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $281.29 (range: $225.00 — $345.00), implying +37.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (14), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.4% is 7.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (20.5%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$316. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5410.0% to approximately $316. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.