MODEL VERDICT
Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $358.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $353.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $362.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $358.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $343.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $540.72 | +50.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $579.75 | +61.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $487.61 | +36.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $545.01 | +52.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $494.98 | +38.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $546.89 | +52.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $344.93 | -3.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $414.64 | +15.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $518.65 | +44.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $493.48 | +37.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $583.99 | +63.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $565.55 | +57.9% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $310 | $339 | $369 | $398 | $428 |
| Conservative (6%) | $317 | $347 | $377 | $407 | $437 |
| Base Case (9.6%) | $327 | $358 | $389 | $420 | $451 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $337 | $369 | $401 | $433 | $465 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.02 | 38.83 | 21.06 | 47.98 | 9.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.99 | 33.92 | 17.34 | 47.40 | 10.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.88 | 23.94 | 18.34 | 30.74 | 4.60 |
| P/FCF | 32.51 | 26.87 | 19.25 | 69.47 | 16.76 |
| P/FFO | 25.03 | 25.10 | 17.06 | 31.15 | 5.26 |
| P/AFFO | 25.85 | 26.10 | 17.57 | 32.23 | 5.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.49 | 3.36 | 2.41 | 4.53 | 0.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.47 | 8.59 | 6.07 | 10.84 | 1.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROP's fair value at $565.55 vs the current price of $358.22, implying +57.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $565.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $514.41 (P10) to $619.58 (P90), with a median of $566.41.
ROP's current P/E of 25.2x compares to the industry median of 34.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -26.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
23 analysts cover ROP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $457.64 (range: $365.00 — $550.00), implying +27.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (12), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ROP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12000.0% to approximately $788. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.