MODEL VERDICT
Rapid Micro Biosystems, Inc. (RPID)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $2.84 | -24.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $2.62 | -30.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.90 | -22.7% | 100% | 48 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 0.77 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.77 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 2.00 | 0.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.15 | 2.11 | 1.40 | 18.99 | 8.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates RPID's fair value at $2.90 vs the current price of $3.75, implying -22.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.64 (P10) to $4.91 (P90), with a median of $3.14.
RPID's current P/E of -3.5x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -109.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover RPID with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying +113.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RPID.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.