MODEL VERDICT
Rithm Property Trust Inc. (RPT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 39 industry peers | $13.32 | -13.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 42 industry peers | $24.23 | +58.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $9.33 | -39.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 40 industry peers | $19.37 | +26.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.49 | -18.5% | 100% | 66 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.81 | 2.92 | 2.37 | 9.13 | 3.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.25 | 8.28 | 7.89 | 17.57 | 5.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.04 | 10.96 | 7.77 | 26.50 | 8.80 |
| P/FCF | 14.72 | 4.51 | 1.51 | 68.61 | 26.46 |
| P/FFO | 2.31 | 1.56 | 1.27 | 4.84 | 1.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.36 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 8.59 | 3.95 | 1.90 | 24.58 | 10.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.36 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.16 | 0.96 | 0.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.62 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 4.89 | 1.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates RPT's fair value at $12.49 vs the current price of $15.33, implying -18.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.49 (P10) to $19.40 (P90), with a median of $12.11.
RPT's current P/E of -1.1x compares to the industry median of 12.2x (29 peers in the group). This represents a -109.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.8x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover RPT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $4.00 — $24.00), implying -8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (12), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RPT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.