MODEL VERDICT
Regal Rexnord Corporation (RRX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $213.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $212.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $205.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $193.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $208.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $305.32 | +43.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $338.39 | +58.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $110.24 | -48.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $251.25 | +17.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $226.48 | +6.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $192.14 | -9.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $383.23 | +79.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $449.50 | +111.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $110.24 | -48.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $252.71 | +18.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $211.95 | -0.5% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 60× | 66× | 72× (Current) | 78× | 84× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $180 | $198 | $216 | $234 | $252 |
| Conservative (5%) | $185 | $204 | $222 | $241 | $259 |
| Base Case (-12.3%) | $155 | $170 | $186 | $201 | $217 |
| Bull Case (-17%) | $147 | $162 | $177 | $191 | $206 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.58 | 21.46 | 13.29 | 52.77 | 15.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.37 | 19.04 | 11.84 | 36.27 | 8.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.59 | 11.17 | 8.11 | 17.11 | 3.27 |
| P/FCF | 17.42 | 16.46 | 10.79 | 26.77 | 6.17 |
| P/FFO | 13.62 | 14.52 | 8.23 | 20.52 | 4.87 |
| P/TBV | 20.61 | 13.34 | 9.48 | 46.29 | 17.28 |
| P/AFFO | 16.53 | 16.83 | 10.39 | 27.32 | 6.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.25 | 1.94 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.52 | 1.57 | 0.84 | 2.13 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RRX's fair value at $211.95 vs the current price of $213.02, implying -0.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $211.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $203.25 (P10) to $237.97 (P90), with a median of $220.38.
RRX's current P/E of 72.5x compares to the industry median of 37.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +93.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover RRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $217.50 (range: $160.00 — $253.00), implying +2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RRX trades at the 8960th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RRX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2030.0% to approximately $170. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.