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Rayonier Inc. (RYN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Rayonier Inc. (RYN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$23.19
→
Intrinsic$110.37
+376%
$73.33$110.37$180.63
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests RYN could have 376% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $23, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $73 → Bull $181. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$137$149$161$174
10%$94$102$110$119
12%$70$76$82$89
14%$55$60$65$70

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($181) offers 679% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($73) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$624.25M
Year 2$780.31M
Year 3$975.38M
Year 4$1.22B
Year 5$1.52B
Terminal$22.43B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$499.40MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is RYN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

RYN trades at $23.19 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $90.45, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of RYN's future cash flows. The bear case ($57.38) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is RYN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $499M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $862M net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $57.38 | Base $90.45 | Bull $139.16. Current price $23.19 implies +300% to base case.

How is RYN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($14.62B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.