MODEL VERDICT
Rayonier Inc. (RYN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $20.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $20.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $21.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 3 REIT peers | $77.28 | +268.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $64.54 | +208.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $55.39 | +164.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $23.28 | +11.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $21.17 | +1.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $20.32 | -3.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $16.73 | -20.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $10.94 | -47.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.98 | +148.1% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (8%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Base Case (11.7%) | $19 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $27 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.73 | 45.15 | 10.92 | 108.81 | 31.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.56 | 34.21 | 11.70 | 71.46 | 19.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.91 | 17.36 | 8.90 | 22.62 | 4.75 |
| P/FCF | 139.98 | 35.61 | 24.88 | 530.70 | 219.77 |
| P/FFO | 15.72 | 19.02 | 5.82 | 22.66 | 6.44 |
| P/TBV | 2.38 | 2.51 | 1.53 | 3.03 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 42.98 | 26.09 | 9.46 | 110.29 | 46.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.36 | 2.49 | 1.53 | 3.01 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.20 | 5.29 | 3.14 | 7.09 | 1.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates RYN's fair value at $51.98 vs the current price of $20.95, implying +148.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.60 (P10) to $81.97 (P90), with a median of $50.34.
RYN's current P/E of 44.6x compares to the industry median of 45.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -1.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
27 analysts cover RYN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.75 (range: $24.00 — $33.00), implying +32.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (15), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 70.9% is 56.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (14.3%), with a Z-score of +7.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$5. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RYN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +7.3σ, meaning margins are 7.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7760.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.