MODEL VERDICT
Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (SBS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $33.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $259.65 | +680.0% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $243.04 | +630.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $124.22 | +273.1% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $193.59 | +481.5% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $336.89 | +912.0% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $1701.15 | +5010.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $250.12 | +651.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $259.60 | +679.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $229.63 | +589.8% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $147 | $176 | $206 | $235 | $264 |
| Conservative (35%) | $163 | $196 | $228 | $261 | $294 |
| Base Case (53.5%) | $186 | $223 | $260 | $297 | $334 |
| Bull Case (72%) | $208 | $250 | $292 | $333 | $375 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.79 | 2.33 | 1.02 | 6.05 | 1.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.94 | 4.44 | 2.16 | 10.94 | 2.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.97 | 3.44 | 1.74 | 3.64 | 0.82 |
| P/FCF | 7.25 | 6.69 | 4.01 | 11.06 | 3.56 |
| P/FFO | 1.48 | 1.56 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 4.50 | 4.29 | 2.65 | 7.39 | 2.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 1.91 | 0.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.57 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBS's fair value at $229.63 vs the current price of $33.29, implying +589.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $229.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $148.29 (P10) to $170.70 (P90), with a median of $157.88.
SBS's current P/E of 13.7x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -36.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover SBS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $23.79 (range: $23.79 — $23.79), implying -28.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SBS trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SBS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2640.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.