MODEL VERDICT
SES AI Corporation (SES)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $1.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $1.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.06 | $1.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $1.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $1.04 | -1.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $1.02 | -2.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.26 | +20.1% | 100% | 31 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.37 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 3.00 | 0.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.31 | 2.43 | 1.61 | 2.77 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates SES's fair value at $1.26 vs the current price of $1.05, implying +20.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 31/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.79 (P10) to $1.28 (P90), with a median of $1.03.
SES's current P/E of -4.8x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (23 peers in the group). This represents a -123.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover SES with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.70 (range: $1.40 — $4.00), implying +157.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 31/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SES.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.