MODEL VERDICT
Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $26.69 | -39.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $51.76 | +17.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $58.65 | +33.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $31.17 | -29.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $26.69 | -39.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.47 | -12.7% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
| Base Case (-7.0%) | $33 | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.59 | 12.61 | 9.20 | 29.25 | 6.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.49 | 11.07 | 6.33 | 23.42 | 6.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.44 | 9.36 | 5.35 | 18.30 | 4.84 |
| P/FCF | 15.99 | 9.72 | 6.13 | 47.30 | 15.58 |
| P/FFO | 11.69 | 10.41 | 7.65 | 21.72 | 4.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.17 | 1.23 | 0.97 | 1.37 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 12.21 | 10.99 | 7.95 | 21.99 | 4.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.12 | 1.17 | 0.92 | 1.30 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 2.24 | 1.67 | 2.80 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates SFBC's fair value at $38.47 vs the current price of $44.08, implying -12.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.70 (P10) to $43.12 (P90), with a median of $39.31.
SFBC's current P/E of 24.5x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +65.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for SFBC.
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SFBC trades at the 8790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SFBC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.