MODEL VERDICT
The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $318.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $337.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $345.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $328.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $336.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $157.28 | -50.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $114.66 | -63.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $188.55 | -40.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $239.87 | -24.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $154.72 | -51.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $253.84 | -20.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $94.74 | -70.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $104.45 | -67.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $122.78 | -61.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $186.51 | -41.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $238.54 | -25.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $230.58 | -27.5% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $285 | $306 | $327 | $348 | $369 |
| Conservative (5%) | $291 | $313 | $334 | $356 | $377 |
| Base Case (6.9%) | $296 | $318 | $340 | $362 | $384 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $303 | $326 | $348 | $370 | $393 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.34 | 33.33 | 30.74 | 50.45 | 6.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.14 | 26.11 | 24.94 | 40.80 | 5.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.30 | 21.78 | 20.78 | 32.56 | 4.12 |
| P/FCF | 35.76 | 30.59 | 21.60 | 50.23 | 11.08 |
| P/FFO | 27.48 | 25.77 | 23.89 | 38.60 | 4.98 |
| P/AFFO | 35.38 | 34.16 | 29.06 | 45.55 | 5.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 21.57 | 20.03 | 13.22 | 38.59 | 8.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.55 | 3.49 | 2.81 | 4.72 | 0.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHW's fair value at $230.58 vs the current price of $318.00, implying -27.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $230.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $209.96 (P10) to $248.36 (P90), with a median of $228.85.
SHW's current P/E of 31.0x compares to the industry median of 18.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +68.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
38 analysts cover SHW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $389.43 (range: $365.00 — $420.00), implying +22.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SHW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5480.0% to approximately $492. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.