SkyWater Technology, Inc. (SKYT)
Valuation Overview•Is SkyWater Technology, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 34/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
SKYT struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (27.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (0.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $160.7M | +29.2% | +27.6% | +25.8% | — | |
| EBITDA | $8.9M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$12.3M | +1850.6% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.25 | +1842.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $18.9M | -838.8% | -18.8% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 19.6% | 20.3% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| Operating Margin | 0.1% | -1.2% | -10.5% | -6.8% |
| Net Margin | 21.0% | 4.7% | -7.1% | -7.8% |
| FCF Margin | -13.9% | -3.4% | -15.8% | -8.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.08 | $-0.14 | -68.9% | ||
| Q2'26 | $-0.08 | $-0.14 | -75.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.01 | $-0.03 | -200.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.17 | $0.24 | +239.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.17 | $-0.11 | +35.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.13 | $-0.08 | +38.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.06 | $0.04 | +166.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.01 | $0.08 | +599.9% |
Total return is +311.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +286.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +63.0% | +53.7% | — |
| 1Y | +311.8% | +286.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +59.5% | +39.1% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +3.3% | -11.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +7.5% | -6.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about SkyWater Technology, Inc. (SKYT) valuation, health, and returns.
SkyWater Technology, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -56.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $15.91)
SkyWater Technology, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $15.91 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $35.00 (implying -4.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
SkyWater Technology, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 34/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.1 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.3%.
SkyWater Technology, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
SkyWater Technology, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +29.2% 1Y revenue growth and +1842.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +27.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -4.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for SkyWater Technology, Inc. include: -42.6% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.77x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.77x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.