MODEL VERDICT
Simulations Plus, Inc. (SLP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $14.79 | -0.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $17.26 | +15.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $19.76 | +32.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $20.35 | +36.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $19.75 | +32.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $17.58 | +17.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.79 | +73.0% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 85.71 | 76.14 | 56.92 | 143.84 | 33.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 75.61 | 85.12 | 46.88 | 112.85 | 26.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.36 | 55.45 | 38.33 | 88.21 | 19.70 |
| P/FCF | 64.77 | 54.21 | 21.04 | 160.11 | 44.35 |
| P/FFO | 63.00 | 56.81 | 36.25 | 108.45 | 26.18 |
| P/TBV | 13.89 | 7.76 | 5.45 | 37.42 | 11.54 |
| P/AFFO | 83.56 | 79.45 | 37.61 | 137.32 | 37.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.30 | 5.39 | 2.94 | 13.93 | 3.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.83 | 15.37 | 4.63 | 32.06 | 8.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SLP's fair value at $25.79 vs the current price of $14.91, implying +73.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.77 (P10) to $30.62 (P90), with a median of $23.39.
SLP's current P/E of -4.6x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -116.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 85.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover SLP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $56.00 (range: $47.00 — $65.00), implying +275.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SLP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.