MODEL VERDICT
SmartFinancial, Inc. (SMBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $45.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $42.27 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $41.70 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $41.64 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $40.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $45.30 | -0.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $47.44 | +4.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $51.25 | +12.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $13.79 | -69.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $45.30 | -0.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $44.43 | -2.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.00 | -5.4% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $34 | $41 | $47 | $53 | $60 |
| Conservative (8%) | $36 | $42 | $48 | $55 | $61 |
| Base Case (13.0%) | $37 | $44 | $51 | $57 | $64 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $39 | $46 | $53 | $60 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.60 | 12.41 | 10.78 | 14.49 | 1.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.22 | 4.82 | 4.28 | 7.25 | 1.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.31 | 3.76 | 3.46 | 6.43 | 1.24 |
| P/FCF | 11.44 | 11.29 | 9.81 | 14.08 | 1.43 |
| P/FFO | 9.84 | 9.84 | 8.33 | 10.99 | 1.08 |
| P/TBV | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.01 | 1.44 | 0.15 |
| P/AFFO | 11.46 | 11.10 | 10.22 | 13.52 | 1.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 1.06 | 0.76 | 1.13 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.26 | 2.05 | 1.72 | 2.88 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMBK's fair value at $43.00 vs the current price of $45.46, implying -5.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.05 (P10) to $42.75 (P90), with a median of $40.38.
SMBK's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +0.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
9 analysts cover SMBK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $49.00 (range: $48.00 — $50.00), implying +7.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (2), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SMBK trades at the 6890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SMBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 490.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.