MODEL VERDICT
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. (SMFG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $22.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $23.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $23.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $23.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $20.20 | Pending | +14.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $4550.93 | +20180.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $6152.32 | +27316.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $6493.73 | +28838.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $3637.09 | +16108.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $4550.85 | +20180.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $2640.46 | +11666.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3567.49 | +15797.9% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $2530 | $3163 | $3796 | $4428 | $5061 |
| Conservative (8%) | $2605 | $3256 | $3907 | $4558 | $5209 |
| Base Case (12.3%) | $2708 | $3386 | $4063 | $4740 | $5417 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $2812 | $3515 | $4218 | $4921 | $5624 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/FCF | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| P/FFO | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 7.84 | 7.90 | 5.46 | 10.04 | 1.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMFG's fair value at $3567.49 vs the current price of $22.44, implying +15797.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3567.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2826.92 (P10) to $3343.24 (P90), with a median of $3083.09.
SMFG's current P/E of 11.6x compares to the industry median of 15.1x (21 peers in the group). This represents a -23.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover SMFG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SMFG trades at the 1900th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SMFG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1810.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.