MODEL VERDICT
Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $20.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $20.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $92.01 | +352.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $37.76 | +85.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $179.61 | +783.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $14.68 | -27.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $13.89 | -31.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $81.42 | +300.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $102.24 | +402.9% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $22 | $22 | $22 | $34 | $45 |
| Conservative (15%) | $23 | $23 | $23 | $35 | $47 |
| Base Case (22.2%) | $25 | $25 | $25 | $38 | $50 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $27 | $27 | $27 | $40 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.53 | 25.53 | 10.53 | 54.02 | 17.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.24 | 35.27 | 12.58 | 48.52 | 14.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.05 | 33.31 | 12.66 | 44.51 | 13.71 |
| P/FCF | 40.41 | 41.96 | 17.25 | 68.12 | 19.81 |
| P/FFO | 30.05 | 24.52 | 10.39 | 51.99 | 16.75 |
| P/TBV | 24.31 | 25.45 | 4.74 | 62.55 | 19.67 |
| P/AFFO | 32.92 | 27.50 | 10.40 | 56.16 | 18.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.76 | 16.38 | 1.87 | 62.55 | 21.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.72 | 11.76 | 4.66 | 19.64 | 5.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMLR's fair value at $102.24 vs the current price of $20.33, implying +402.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $102.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.86 (P10) to $109.11 (P90), with a median of $82.06.
SMLR's current P/E of 4.0x compares to the industry median of 17.9x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -77.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover SMLR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.50 (range: $40.00 — $61.00), implying +148.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 130.8% is 92.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (38.1%), with a Z-score of +5.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$47. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SMLR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +5.5σ, meaning margins are 5.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (38.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13160.0% to approximately $47. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.