MODEL VERDICT
SmartRent, Inc. (SMRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $1.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $1.67 | Pending | -15.6% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.77 | Pending | -14.1% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.64 | Pending | -10.4% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.62 | Pending | -8.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $2.86 | +82.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $2.00 | +27.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.14 | +100.2% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.05 | 2.84 | 2.20 | 4.33 | 0.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 1.59 | 1.20 | 4.17 | 1.39 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.12 | 2.77 | 1.99 | 16.96 | 7.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMRT's fair value at $3.14 vs the current price of $1.57, implying +100.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.82 (P10) to $4.52 (P90), with a median of $3.01.
SMRT's current P/E of -9.2x compares to the industry median of 37.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -124.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover SMRT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.00 (range: $2.00 — $6.00), implying +154.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SMRT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.