Sonoco Products Company (SON)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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SON Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $475M | $164M | $396M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.80 | $1.65 | $3.98 | $11.14 | $13.49 | $16.41 | $17.75 |
| YoY Growth | — | -65.5% | +141.8% | +177.9% | +21.4% | +22.0% | +8.5% |
| Net Margin | 8.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 11.6% |
USD · SON · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.5B | $9.0B | $11.0B | $13.5B | $15.3B |
| Net Income | $396M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.98 | $11.14 | $13.49 | $16.41 | $17.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | $393M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SON stock.
Sonoco Products Company's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $11.14. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 46/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Sonoco Products Company: Bear case $26, Base case $177, and Bull case $66. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Sonoco Products Company's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 19.9%, reaching approximately $9.0B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 46/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Stable margins provide a consistent baseline. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Sonoco Products Company's forward operating margin is estimated at 8.6% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "stable". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($26) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 90.4% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 20% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.