MODEL VERDICT
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $82.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $84.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $84.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $79.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $79.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $69.02 | -16.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $84.72 | +2.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $108.33 | +30.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $148.30 | +78.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $81.73 | -1.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $148.37 | +78.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $180.36 | +117.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $113.69 | +37.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $96.35 | +16.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $108.34 | +30.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $148.29 | +78.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $153.59 | +85.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $69 | $77 | $85 | $93 | $101 |
| Conservative (8%) | $71 | $80 | $88 | $96 | $105 |
| Base Case (12.9%) | $74 | $83 | $92 | $100 | $109 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $77 | $86 | $95 | $104 | $113 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.22 | 21.91 | 1.75 | 37.61 | 13.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 257.37 | 42.22 | 15.60 | 1161.86 | 505.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.06 | 31.60 | 9.25 | 44.58 | 17.43 |
| P/FCF | 15.81 | 16.15 | 9.23 | 21.73 | 5.33 |
| P/FFO | 10.20 | 11.37 | 1.66 | 16.62 | 5.54 |
| P/TBV | 9.58 | 9.00 | 5.22 | 14.53 | 4.68 |
| P/AFFO | 13.12 | 14.11 | 1.72 | 23.31 | 7.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.80 | 1.89 | 0.80 | 2.97 | 0.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 1.47 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPB's fair value at $153.59 vs the current price of $82.96, implying +85.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $153.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.46 (P10) to $295.89 (P90), with a median of $163.00.
SPB's current P/E of 21.5x compares to the industry median of 28.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -23.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
21 analysts cover SPB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.00 (range: $85.00 — $85.00), implying +2.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19090.0% to approximately $241. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.