MODEL VERDICT
ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SPRY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $8.74 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $8.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $8.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $8.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $8.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.36 | -50.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $3.97 | -54.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $838.79 | +9497.1% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 4.84 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 11.51 | 4.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.44 | 3.23 | 1.25 | 10.05 | 3.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 2967.08 | 62.54 | 12.12 | 17392.67 | 7067.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPRY's fair value at $838.79 vs the current price of $8.74, implying +9497.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $838.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.63 (P10) to $1942.89 (P90), with a median of $457.39.
SPRY's current P/E of -5.0x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -122.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover SPRY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $25.50 (range: $25.00 — $26.00), implying +191.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPRY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.