MODEL VERDICT
Spire Inc. (SR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $90.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $90.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $92.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $92.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $94.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $90.62 | +0.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $88.58 | -2.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $128.96 | +42.6% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $101.82 | +12.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $98.71 | +9.2% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $256.74 | +184.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $114.63 | +26.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $87.38 | -3.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $109.01 | +20.6% | 100% | 79 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $82 | $91 | $101 | $111 | $120 |
| Conservative (16%) | $86 | $96 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
| Base Case (24.9%) | $93 | $104 | $115 | $126 | $136 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $99 | $111 | $123 | $134 | $146 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.43 | 17.43 | 13.15 | 44.47 | 10.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.40 | 18.84 | 15.88 | 31.37 | 5.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.72 | 12.27 | 10.70 | 16.05 | 1.93 |
| P/FFO | 8.64 | 7.83 | 6.94 | 11.55 | 2.04 |
| P/TBV | 2.26 | 2.18 | 1.85 | 3.08 | 0.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.32 | 1.27 | 1.12 | 1.66 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.68 | 1.63 | 1.23 | 2.17 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates SR's fair value at $109.01 vs the current price of $90.41, implying +20.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $109.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $87.03 (P10) to $110.57 (P90), with a median of $98.39.
SR's current P/E of 20.7x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -0.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover SR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $97.00 (range: $87.00 — $102.00), implying +7.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1870.0% to approximately $74. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.