MODEL VERDICT
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $192.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $181.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $176.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $172.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $176.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $183.00 | -4.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $209.42 | +9.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $222.43 | +15.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $125.19 | -34.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $191.40 | -0.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $182.04 | -5.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $362.06 | +88.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $176.22 | -8.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $158.04 | -17.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $220.30 | +14.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $125.19 | -34.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.25 | +4.8% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $165 | $183 | $200 | $218 | $235 |
| Conservative (9%) | $171 | $189 | $207 | $225 | $243 |
| Base Case (14.1%) | $179 | $197 | $216 | $235 | $254 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $186 | $206 | $226 | $245 | $265 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.19 | 21.89 | 11.43 | 26.92 | 4.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.53 | 16.13 | 9.01 | 18.90 | 3.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.27 | 13.82 | 7.59 | 15.96 | 2.76 |
| P/FCF | 29.84 | 24.15 | 11.31 | 59.53 | 16.41 |
| P/FFO | 17.08 | 17.60 | 9.40 | 20.91 | 3.81 |
| P/TBV | 6.71 | 6.24 | 4.90 | 10.45 | 1.91 |
| P/AFFO | 23.17 | 24.80 | 11.26 | 30.93 | 6.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.04 | 4.04 | 2.70 | 5.11 | 0.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.13 | 3.17 | 1.80 | 3.85 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SSD's fair value at $201.25 vs the current price of $192.05, implying +4.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $167.78 (P10) to $201.77 (P90), with a median of $184.57.
SSD's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -13.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
8 analysts cover SSD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $214.75 (range: $210.00 — $220.00), implying +11.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SSD trades at the 4710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SSD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2320.0% to approximately $237. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.