Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$75.29
→
Intrinsic$144.68
+92%
$99.08$144.68$231.34
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SSNC could have 92% upside at 13% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $75, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 13%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $99 → Bull $231. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $173 | $188 | $205 | $222 |
| 10% | $123 | $134 | $145 | $157 |
| 12% | $95 | $103 | $111 | $120 |
| 14% | $78 | $84 | $90 | $97 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($231) offers 207% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (13%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($99) with 10% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.87B
Year 2$2.11B
Year 3$2.37B
Year 4$2.67B
Year 5$3.01B
Terminal$44.25B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate12.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.66BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.