MODEL VERDICT
SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. (SSNC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $75.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $71.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $72.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $75.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $87.04 | Pending | -12.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $139.38 | +85.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $176.59 | +134.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $82.95 | +10.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $128.54 | +70.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $144.77 | +92.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $123.06 | +63.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $30.12 | -60.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $85.33 | +13.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $81.50 | +8.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $92.00 | +22.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $129.46 | +71.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $121.51 | +61.4% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $65 | $71 | $77 | $84 | $90 |
| Conservative (5%) | $66 | $73 | $79 | $86 | $93 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $67 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $93 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $95 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.85 | 27.42 | 20.99 | 36.99 | 5.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.89 | 20.62 | 16.52 | 25.30 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.52 | 13.95 | 11.31 | 15.24 | 1.60 |
| P/FCF | 15.31 | 14.73 | 13.30 | 17.99 | 1.77 |
| P/FFO | 13.32 | 13.37 | 10.32 | 14.93 | 1.63 |
| P/AFFO | 14.85 | 15.16 | 12.25 | 16.47 | 1.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.98 | 3.17 | 2.23 | 3.52 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.46 | 3.50 | 2.58 | 4.34 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SSNC's fair value at $121.51 vs the current price of $75.29, implying +61.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $121.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $102.71 (P10) to $143.22 (P90), with a median of $123.05.
SSNC's current P/E of 23.9x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -9.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
24 analysts cover SSNC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $101.14 (range: $86.00 — $112.00), implying +34.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SSNC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 540.0% to approximately $79. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.