MODEL VERDICT
Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $37.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $37.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $37.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $37.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $37.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $29.15 | -22.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $48.36 | +29.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $36.92 | -1.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $24.83 | -33.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $29.12 | -22.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $28.20 | -24.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.65 | -4.9% | 100% | 93 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $31 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 |
| Conservative (9%) | $32 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $50 |
| Base Case (13.4%) | $34 | $38 | $43 | $47 | $52 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $35 | $40 | $45 | $49 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.70 | 15.41 | 10.28 | 24.07 | 4.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.24 | 7.63 | 2.93 | 13.32 | 3.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.37 | 6.34 | 2.72 | 10.85 | 3.02 |
| P/FCF | 12.08 | 11.87 | 8.02 | 17.31 | 3.33 |
| P/FFO | 12.06 | 12.10 | 9.00 | 15.70 | 2.58 |
| P/TBV | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.39 | 1.73 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 12.81 | 12.51 | 9.39 | 16.67 | 3.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.07 | 0.98 | 0.75 | 1.46 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.04 | 2.97 | 2.41 | 4.57 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates STEL's fair value at $35.65 vs the current price of $37.50, implying -4.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.30 (P10) to $36.78 (P90), with a median of $34.02.
STEL's current P/E of 18.8x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +28.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
4 analysts cover STEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.50 (range: $27.00 — $32.00), implying -21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: STEL trades at the 8700th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.