MODEL VERDICT
Stantec Inc. (STN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $91.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $89.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $91.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $90.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $86.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $96.78 | +5.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $110.41 | +20.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $134.86 | +47.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $109.37 | +19.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $85.06 | -7.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $104.01 | +13.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $77.68 | -15.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $101.40 | +10.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $105.09 | +14.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $127.82 | +39.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $110.02 | +20.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.54 | -15.2% | 100% | 68 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $110 | $120 | $130 | $140 | $150 |
| Conservative (8%) | $113 | $124 | $134 | $144 | $154 |
| Base Case (12.7%) | $118 | $129 | $139 | $150 | $161 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $123 | $134 | $145 | $156 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.73 | 24.75 | 16.26 | 52.05 | 11.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.43 | 18.46 | 12.55 | 26.29 | 4.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.43 | 10.61 | 8.59 | 14.89 | 2.08 |
| P/FCF | 22.64 | 18.12 | 6.38 | 64.80 | 19.60 |
| P/FFO | 12.75 | 13.16 | 9.42 | 15.31 | 2.42 |
| P/TBV | 186.40 | 71.15 | 49.46 | 553.84 | 245.27 |
| P/AFFO | 24.88 | 15.40 | 11.49 | 87.92 | 27.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.43 | 2.34 | 1.30 | 3.64 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.58 | 1.38 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates STN's fair value at $77.54 vs the current price of $91.46, implying -15.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.19 (P10) to $119.76 (P90), with a median of $102.21.
STN's current P/E of 39.2x compares to the industry median of 42.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -7.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover STN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $62.07 (range: $62.07 — $62.07), implying -32.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.0% is 2.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.8%), with a Z-score of +2.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$100. (2) Multiple compression: STN trades at the 4620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.4σ, meaning margins are 2.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 920.0% to approximately $100. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.