MODEL VERDICT
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $532.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $497.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $463.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $456.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $446.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $413.90 | -22.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $343.64 | -35.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $360.26 | -32.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $335.47 | -37.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $342.22 | -35.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $331.66 | -37.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $1432.58 | +168.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $144.23 | -72.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $129.23 | -75.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $360.27 | -32.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $335.47 | -37.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $364.26 | -31.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 52× | 57× (Current) | 62× | 67× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $519 | $574 | $629 | $685 | $740 |
| Conservative (29%) | $568 | $628 | $689 | $749 | $809 |
| Base Case (44.3%) | $636 | $704 | $772 | $839 | $907 |
| Bull Case (60%) | $704 | $779 | $854 | $929 | $1004 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.64 | 12.41 | 9.43 | 32.65 | 8.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.41 | 12.15 | 8.14 | 24.98 | 6.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.24 | 10.15 | 6.17 | 19.20 | 4.78 |
| P/FCF | 11.31 | 6.82 | 5.83 | 26.13 | 7.43 |
| P/FFO | 11.92 | 7.90 | 6.30 | 25.80 | 7.28 |
| P/AFFO | 17.33 | 15.25 | 8.44 | 32.68 | 8.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.89 | 2.12 | 1.73 | 8.57 | 2.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.36 | 0.57 | 0.34 | 3.81 | 1.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates STRL's fair value at $364.26 vs the current price of $532.67, implying -31.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $364.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $245.96 (P10) to $344.35 (P90), with a median of $295.00.
STRL's current P/E of 56.8x compares to the industry median of 38.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +47.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover STRL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $488.20 (range: $413.00 — $572.00), implying -8.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.7% is 5.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$140. (2) Multiple compression: STRL trades at the 6150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STRL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7380.0% to approximately $140. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.