MODEL VERDICT
Strattec Security Corporation (STRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $72.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $76.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $80.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $76.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $82.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $64.61 | -11.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $107.87 | +48.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $77.49 | +6.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $253.28 | +248.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $83.72 | +15.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $303.31 | +317.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $162.94 | +124.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $101.60 | +39.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $76.59 | +5.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $253.55 | +249.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.61 | +63.4% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $57 | $67 | $76 | $86 | $95 |
| Conservative (7%) | $59 | $68 | $78 | $88 | $98 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $60 | $71 | $81 | $91 | $101 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $62 | $73 | $83 | $94 | $104 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.12 | 10.77 | 6.33 | 16.62 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.32 | 9.27 | 7.59 | 15.14 | 3.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.37 | 5.08 | 3.12 | 19.82 | 5.75 |
| P/FCF | 19.51 | 6.54 | 4.81 | 66.60 | 26.59 |
| P/FFO | 9.42 | 9.19 | 3.04 | 18.28 | 5.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.37 | 1.26 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 8.43 | 7.66 | 6.58 | 11.80 | 2.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.37 | 1.26 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.55 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates STRT's fair value at $118.61 vs the current price of $72.60, implying +63.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $107.34 (P10) to $172.99 (P90), with a median of $132.57.
STRT's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 16.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -6.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.1x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
1 analysts cover STRT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.6% is 4.5 percentage points above the 4-year average (0.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$9. (2) Multiple compression: STRT trades at the 3040th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.1×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8800.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.