MODEL VERDICT
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $14.90 | -18.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $18.40 | +0.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $20.38 | +11.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $17.53 | -4.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $13.51 | -26.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $125.49 | +585.7% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $17 | $19 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (1.0%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $14 | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.82 | 15.99 | 5.93 | 19.64 | 4.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 1002.80 | 15.81 | 13.77 | 2978.83 | 1711.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 367.89 | 36.67 | 6.43 | 1815.21 | 717.37 |
| P/FCF | 12.36 | 9.82 | 5.34 | 27.47 | 8.97 |
| P/FFO | 11.67 | 12.80 | 3.80 | 16.81 | 4.53 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 12.23 | 13.93 | 3.87 | 17.97 | 5.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.72 | 1.38 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.14 | 3.33 | 2.98 | 6.07 | 1.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates STWD's fair value at $125.49 vs the current price of $18.30, implying +585.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $125.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.90 (P10) to $404.65 (P90), with a median of $117.80.
STWD's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 16.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -10.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
21 analysts cover STWD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (14), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: STWD trades at the 6800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STWD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4090.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.