MODEL VERDICT
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $47.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $49.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $51.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $49.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $50.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $30.93 | -35.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $9.72 | -79.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $22.93 | -52.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $44.39 | -7.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $23.88 | -50.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $42.45 | -11.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $39.59 | -17.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $45.97 | -3.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $22.56 | -52.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $42.61 | -11.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.91 | -8.2% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 |
| Conservative (5%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Base Case (-8.9%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 192.96 | 27.39 | 10.66 | 1221.10 | 453.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 58.54 | 18.72 | 7.67 | 303.40 | 108.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.77 | 12.77 | 7.70 | 19.76 | 4.65 |
| P/FCF | 13.01 | 12.67 | 9.09 | 18.90 | 3.26 |
| P/FFO | 14.30 | 15.04 | 9.31 | 18.64 | 3.63 |
| P/TBV | 9.48 | 4.78 | 2.24 | 32.97 | 11.65 |
| P/AFFO | 14.48 | 15.09 | 9.54 | 18.88 | 3.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.29 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 3.97 | 0.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.14 | 3.06 | 2.60 | 4.40 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SUPN's fair value at $43.91 vs the current price of $47.85, implying -8.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.89 (P10) to $102.47 (P90), with a median of $48.12.
SUPN's current P/E of 36.3x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +108.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 193.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover SUPN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.00 (range: $55.00 — $65.00), implying +25.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SUPN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.