MODEL VERDICT
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $15.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $15.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $14.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $14.25 | -8.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $12.96 | -16.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $27.96 | +79.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $18.97 | +21.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $52.70 | +238.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $54.13 | +247.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $15.81 | +1.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.39 | -14.0% | 100% | 56 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 44× | 48× | 52× (Current) | 56× | 60× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.88 | 14.35 | 2.13 | 32.90 | 11.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.71 | 12.74 | 1.33 | 22.11 | 7.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.65 | 6.27 | 1.19 | 12.96 | 4.01 |
| P/FCF | 13.18 | 12.17 | 3.37 | 29.60 | 10.88 |
| P/FFO | 6.02 | 5.98 | 1.85 | 9.68 | 3.09 |
| P/TBV | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 4.06 | 1.05 |
| P/AFFO | 8.73 | 7.16 | 2.07 | 18.52 | 7.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 3.70 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.48 | 1.44 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates SWBI's fair value at $13.39 vs the current price of $15.57, implying -14.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.61 (P10) to $18.87 (P90), with a median of $16.17.
SWBI's current P/E of 51.9x compares to the industry median of 93.2x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -44.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover SWBI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.25 (range: $12.50 — $18.00), implying -2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SWBI trades at the 5950th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SWBI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (14.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6370.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.