MODEL VERDICT
TrueBlue, Inc. (TBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 15 analyst estimates | $3.96 | -23.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 18 industry peers | $41.40 | +700.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 18 industry peers | $42.79 | +727.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.28 | +176.3% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.76 | 14.30 | 10.53 | 15.90 | 2.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 444.82 | 14.58 | 8.79 | 2173.29 | 966.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 55.41 | 9.50 | 5.64 | 243.46 | 105.13 |
| P/FCF | 34.62 | 8.25 | 5.27 | 138.13 | 57.95 |
| P/FFO | 15.25 | 9.37 | 6.27 | 41.24 | 14.63 |
| P/TBV | 2.07 | 2.10 | 0.89 | 3.41 | 0.89 |
| P/AFFO | 12.49 | 11.49 | 8.87 | 18.09 | 4.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.38 | 1.51 | 0.80 | 1.99 | 0.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.45 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates TBI's fair value at $14.28 vs the current price of $5.17, implying +176.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.75 (P10) to $21.55 (P90), with a median of $12.78.
TBI's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -106.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover TBI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying +16.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TBI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.