MODEL VERDICT
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $40.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $39.21 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $38.26 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $38.08 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $36.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $55.80 | +39.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $41.45 | +3.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $54.17 | +35.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $9.65 | -75.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $55.82 | +39.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $48.29 | +20.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.68 | +14.0% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $28 | $36 | $44 | $52 | $60 |
| Conservative (10%) | $29 | $37 | $46 | $54 | $62 |
| Base Case (14.7%) | $30 | $39 | $48 | $57 | $65 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $32 | $41 | $50 | $59 | $68 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.12 | 12.21 | 10.03 | 18.56 | 3.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.77 | 4.96 | 2.29 | 6.87 | 1.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.42 | 4.57 | 2.06 | 6.48 | 1.88 |
| P/FCF | 16.54 | 15.18 | 9.41 | 26.40 | 7.35 |
| P/FFO | 11.95 | 11.12 | 8.72 | 18.96 | 4.15 |
| P/TBV | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.70 | 1.32 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 19.35 | 11.51 | 9.06 | 38.21 | 13.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92 | 0.81 | 0.66 | 1.26 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 1.70 | 1.22 | 2.05 | 0.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates TCBX's fair value at $45.68 vs the current price of $40.08, implying +14.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.82 (P10) to $46.90 (P90), with a median of $43.26.
TCBX's current P/E of 10.6x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -28.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.1x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
5 analysts cover TCBX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $45.00 (range: $45.00 — $45.00), implying +12.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 18.1% is 6.0 percentage points above the 5-year average (12.0%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$33. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TCBX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (12.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1750.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.