MODEL VERDICT
T1 Energy Inc (TE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $5.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $5.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $5.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $5.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $4.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $0.10 | -98.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $3.42 | -33.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.06 | -60.0% | 100% | 34 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 60.13 | 1.87 | 0.41 | 236.36 | 117.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 48.41 | 1.53 | 0.41 | 236.36 | 105.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates TE's fair value at $2.06 vs the current price of $5.15, implying -60.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 34/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
TE's current P/E of -1.6x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -107.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover TE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.50 (range: $8.00 — $15.00), implying +103.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 34/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.